Knowing how to predict Oscar winners is a science! A study reveals that Oscar nominations and Academy Award winners don’t depend on a performer’s talent alone. Other factors, such as the subject matter of the film and number of films screened, are weight factors in predicting Oscar winners and forecasting Academy Award nominations. Researchers Gabriel Rossman and Nicole Esparza had earlier analyzed the Internet Movie Database to predict Academy Award nominations. They looked at all the Oscar-eligible films from 1927 to 2005 to predict future Oscar winners.
The 3 Strongest Predictors for Academy Award Nominations
Serious subject matter – In their analysis of Academy Award winners, Rossman and Esparza found that actors in serious films or dramas are nine times more likely to receive an Oscar than those in comedies.
Number of films in the year – The second strongest predictor for Academy Award nominations or Oscar winners was the number of films in a given year. Fewer films means less competition.
Performer’s gender – Actresses are more than twice as likely to be nominated for an Oscar as actors. It’s simple math. There is the same number of Oscars for actors and actresses but there are fewer actresses in movies. Thus, there are fewer women to choose from when making a nomination for an Academy Award – which improves an actresses’ chances of winning an Oscar.
Two More Ways to Predict Oscar Winners or Academy Award Nominations
Past movie credits – The better a performer’s ranking in past films, the more likely he’ll be nominated for an Oscar. “Just as the rich tend to get richer and popular web sites get even more traffic, so do honors seem to pile unto those who have already been honored, be they scientists or movie stars,” says Esparza.
Appearing with past Oscar winners – A performer’s chance of receiving an Academy Award nomination is increased when she’s in a film with past Oscar winners. This is a mixed blessing, though. Performing with past Academy Award winners improved the chances of winning a supporting role, but not as a lead performer.